2010/06/20

With 5 Points Chile Qualifies, 6 Points May Not Be Enough

Obviously 9 points in Group H would be optimal, but let us play with numbers. If Chile gets 5 points, they are qualified to next round but if they get 6 points, they might not. How is that possible?

Dream Scenario
Chile qualified as Group H leaders, plays against Group G second place if ...

Chile - Honduras 1-0
Chile - Switzerland 1-0 (or higher)
Chile - Spain 1-0 (or higher)

Chile: 3 wins 0 draws 0 losses 3 Goals For 0 Goals Against +3 Goals 9 Points

Probable Scenario

If Chile wins over Switzerland with many goals and draws against Spain. They would be Group H winners and play against Group G seconds.

Chile - Honduras 1-0
Chile - Switzerland 5-0
Chile - Spain 0-0

Chile: 2 wins 1 draw 0 losses 6 Goals For 0 Goals Against +6 Goals 7 Points

Okay Scenario
Beating Spain seems near impossible today (maybe not tomorrow), but a draw against Switzerland and Spain would mean ...

Chile - Honduras 1-0
Chile - Switzerland 0-0
Chile - Spain 0-0

Swiss 7 points
Chile: 1 win 2 draws 0 losses 1 Goal For 0 Goals Against +1 Goals 5 Points
Spain 4 points

Assuming that both Switzerland and Spain beat Honduras mean that Switzerland is Group winner with 7 points and Spain are out with 4 points. Chile advances with 5 points and meet Group G winners (Brazil).

Nightmare Scenario
A nightmare would occur if Chile, Switzerland and Spain end up with 6 points, and Chile is knocked out due to goal difference. It could be possible if Chile beats Switzerland and losses against Spain. Switzerland then wins against Honduras with more goals than Chile did.

Chile - Honduras 1-0 Switzerland - Spain 1-0 Spain - Honduras 5-0
Chile - Switzerland 1-0 Switzerland - Honduras 5-0
Chile - Spain 0-5

Swiss: 2 wins 0 drawss 1 loss 10 Goals For 1 Goal Against +9 Goals 6 Points
Spain: 2 wins 0 draws 1 loss 10 Goals For 1 Goal Against +9 Goals 6 Points
Chile: 2 wins 0 draws 1 loss 2 Goals For 5 Goals Against -3 Goals 6 Points



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